AI Overviews Estimated at 0.9% CTR in One Opt-Out Test
Barry Schwartz says he hasn't seen anyone else publish data like it, and the organic result is the part to watch.
Site owners keep asking what Google’s AI features actually send them.
Search Engine Roundtable covers a small case study with about 0.9% click-through on AI impressions.
The same test found that regular organic clicks dropped while those features were off. That’s the part you can check yourself.
What the test did
Cyrus Shepard posted the study on LinkedIn and called it a small case study.
He used Google’s generative AI opt-out controls to keep one site out of AI Overviews and AI Mode.
He then compared three things with the site inside those features and outside them:
- Impressions
- Clicks
- Click-through rate
Once he opted out, AI impressions went immediately to zero.
The organic number
The result that surprised Shepard was the organic one. Shepard reported that organic clicks also dropped while the AI features were disabled.
Schwartz reads that as meaning opting out will likely affect your organic click-through too. So does opting out cost you organic clicks?
The test points that way. Still, one site can’t settle it for you.
Shepard called the effect a “Search SERP Halo Effect.” His idea is that when you show up in more places on the page, a click becomes more likely anywhere on it.
He also reported these:
- Sitewide, average position increased, which Shepard tied to a couple of new posts and brand search.
- On the URLs with the most AI visibility, there was a drop, then a rise when visibility returned.
- Overall impressions dropped.
- AI impressions made up about 8% of the total, per Shepard.
What the number doesn’t show
Shepard confirmed AI Overviews ran before, during and after the test. Did his site appear? Yes, before and after, but it was missing during the test.
So the test doesn’t compare clicks with and without AI Overviews on the page.
That’s the comparison you’d want before making a clean call on your own numbers, and the test you’re reading about doesn’t include it.
The 0.9% is a calculation: Shepard got it by subtracting known AI impressions from overall site CTR and impressions during the test.
Greg Sterling added in the comments that Near Media’s research sees brand lift from AI Overviews. Brand lift often leads to later searches and clicks, but inconsistently.
Why it matters
My read: don’t flip the switch on 0.9% alone. It’s one estimate from one site, and the organic dip is the cost that matters most to you.
Does this apply to your site? It might, if AI Overviews already show for your pages, because that’s the traffic an opt-out would touch.
Do this on your own site:
- Note your organic clicks and click-through rate for a stretch of weeks.
- Change one setting.
- Compare the same length of time after your change.
Watch your organic line as closely as the AI one.
In practice, I’d expect a fair comparison to take more than one week, since traffic swings for plenty of reasons unrelated to the change.
Barry says he hasn’t seen anyone else publish data like this, so you have little to compare against.
That’s why I’d treat it as a starting point for your own check.
Either way, you’d lose those AI impressions if you opted out. So how much of your traffic depends on them?
Common Questions
Is the 0.9% click-through rate from AI Overviews reliable?
It’s an estimate from one site, worked out by subtracting known AI impressions from overall numbers. Treat it as a starting point and check it against your own data.
Does opting out of AI Overviews reduce regular organic clicks?
In the one test reported, regular organic clicks dropped while the AI features were disabled. The study was small, so run your own before and after check.
Does appearing in AI Overviews help clicks elsewhere on the page?
Shepard calls it a halo effect, and Greg Sterling says his research often sees brand lift that shows up later. This study doesn’t prove either, so treat both as open questions.
